New Zealand’s property market has recorded its third consecutive monthly rise in values, even as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on confidence.
According to Cotality, the national median property price increased 0.1% in April, leaving values 0.6% higher than in January. However, prices remain 16.8% below the market peak reached in January 2022.
Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the recent resilience in prices had been somewhat unexpected given the broader environment.
“We’ve now seen property values edge higher for three months in a row, despite the sluggish start in 2026 for sales volumes, listings still elevated, the Iran conflict emerging, mortgage rates gradually rising and economic indicators worsening,” he said.
However, Mr Davidson cautioned against reading too much into the recent gains. He noted that some major centres, including Auckland and Wellington, remain relatively soft and pointed out that similar early-year increases in 2024 and 2025 later reversed.
“With Iran-related uncertainty currently very high, it would hardly be a surprise to see that pattern repeat in the next three to six months either,” he said.
Interest rates remain a key influence
Mr Davidson said the outlook for inflation would play an important role in determining where interest rates – and ultimately the property market – head next.
He said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was watching closely for “second-round” inflation effects from the Middle East conflict, such as rising wage demands or higher inflation expectations.
That matters because stronger inflation pressures could prompt interest rate increases sooner than previously expected. Mr Davidson said it “would not be a surprise to see mortgage rates slowly heading upwards”.
A market still in a holding pattern
Despite the recent lift in values, Mr Davidson described the broader market as remaining in a “holding pattern”, with buyers generally comfortable with the current environment – particularly those with secure employment.
He said first home buyers may welcome a softer market if price growth slows again, while some investors are continuing to weigh opportunities against political uncertainty ahead of November’s election.
For buyers and sellers alike, the current environment reinforces the importance of focusing on long-term affordability and personal financial circumstances rather than short-term market movements.
With so much uncertainty around interest rates and inflation, some buyers and property owners may value an informed second opinion on their lending strategy. Please feel free to pass on our details if helpful.
