Property prices remain under pressure, with the housing market yet to show signs of a sustained recovery.
Cotality data shows the national median property price was $804,000 in July, down 1.0% from three months earlier and 0.7% from a year earlier. Values are now 17.7% below their January 2022 peak, although still 16.0% higher than in March 2020, before the Covid-era property boom.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said July’s figures continued the subdued trend seen throughout the first half of 2026.
“Property sales volumes have inched lower so far this year, although they’re still at a relatively normal level. But the stock of listings remains elevated and this is giving buyers the balance of power when it comes to pricing,” he said.
Buyers retain the upper hand
Mr Davidson said uncertainty around inflation and the economic outlook was continuing to weigh on the market. The Reserve Bank has also begun moving the official cash rate towards a more neutral level, while mortgage rates could rise again in the short term.
Against that backdrop, first home buyers remain active, while mortgaged investors are showing signs of greater caution.
The bigger picture is that property values have now been broadly stagnant for around three years, following the sharp declines recorded during 2022 and the first half of 2023.
Mr Davidson described the current correction as the longest and deepest seen in at least 30–40 years. While he expects values to eventually rise again due to long-term factors such as population and wage growth, he said a meaningful recovery may not occur until next year.
For buyers, subdued prices and elevated listings can mean more choice and negotiating power. But decisions about buying or selling should ultimately be based on your financial circumstances and long-term goals rather than trying to predict exactly when the market will turn.
Thinking about making a property move in the current market? Contact us to discuss your borrowing capacity, finance options and how to prepare for your next purchase.
