The past six years have been a turbulent period for the housing market, moving from unprecedented growth during the Covid-19 years to a correction and now a more settled phase.
According to QV, national home values are 21.6% higher than they were six years ago, despite the volatility seen over that period.
QV Spokesperson Simon Petersen said the period since the March 2020 lockdown had been a story of two extremes – “incredibly rapid, unsustainable growth, followed by a sharp correction and then a gradual return to normal”.
He added that today’s market looks more like it did before the pandemic, with buyers and sellers behaving more cautiously. “There’s less urgency, more negotiation and a stronger focus on fundamentals like affordability and supply.”
Different regions, different outcomes
While national values have risen overall, performance has varied significantly across the country. Over the six-year period, values increased 93.5% in Greymouth, 55.0% in Christchurch and 9.6% in Auckland, while Wellington saw a decline of 0.2%.
Mr Petersen said regional and lifestyle areas benefited during the pandemic as buyers sought more space and flexibility.
He also noted that higher-priced markets felt the boom and the correction more sharply, but no part of the country was untouched.
A more measured market in 2026
In 2026, conditions are markedly different from both the highs of 2020 and 2021 and the downturn that followed. Growth has stabilised, activity levels are closer to long-term averages and regional differences are now being driven more by local factors.
Mr Petersen said the market is now characterised by more measured decision-making. “Buyers are more considered, vendors are more realistic and overall activity is tracking closer to longer-term norms. Everything is more or less in balance right now.”
He added that a more predictable market reduces the risk of another sharp correction, even with ongoing global uncertainty.
What this means for buyers and sellers
A more balanced market typically creates a more level playing field. Buyers may have more time to make decisions and negotiate, while sellers can still achieve results if pricing expectations align with current conditions.
With less volatility, decisions are increasingly being driven by fundamentals such as affordability, supply and personal circumstances rather than short-term market movements.
With the market now more balanced, some clients may value insight into how current conditions could shape their next move. I’m available if a conversation would be useful.
