New Zealand’s median property price edged lower in January, continuing the subdued pattern seen late last year. The median fell 0.1% over the month to $803,000, down 0.3% over the quarter and 1.0% over the year. That leaves prices 17.5% below their early 2022 peak of $973,000.
Since the market topped out, price declines have varied across the country, including by 25.5% in Wellington, 23.4% in Auckland, 14.9% in Tauranga and 12.6% in Hamilton.
Cotality Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the muted start to the new year was a continuation of the trends we saw throughout most of last year.
He also noted that while lower interest rates were helping borrowers, buyers were not rushing back into the market.
“New borrowers and also existing mortgage holders will be feeling the benefits of lower interest rates and be more able to act in the market,” he said.
“But there’s still a good stock of listings out there for buyers to choose from and a cautious attitude persists, especially as the recovering economy has yet to improve job security and employment levels.”
Mr Davidson said the result was a balanced environment. “The net result is that buyers aren’t in a rush to bid up prices, although vendors aren’t generally having to drop their expectations much either.”
Key themes for 2026
Looking ahead, Mr Davidson said several factors would shape the year.
“Most expectations are for sales activity to continue to rise this year, bringing down the stock of unsold listings and contributing to rising house prices,” he said.
He pointed to lower interest rates, a growing economy and gradually falling unemployment as supportive influences. However, he cautioned against expecting rapid gains. Housing supply has already risen relative to population, dwelling consents appear to be picking up and debt-to-income ratio limits remain in the background as a guardrail on lending.
Mr Davidson added that first home buyers were likely to remain active, supported by access to low-deposit finance, while investors had returned but were watching political developments closely.
“All in all, it could prove to be another relatively subdued year for housing in 2026,” he said.
Some of your clients may have questions about how these conditions affect borrowing power or repayments – we are always happy to help them navigate this.
